Spring 2012 edition of CMHC's Housing Market Outlook - Greater Toronto Area‏

Market at a Glance

- Both resale and new home construction activity will reach high annual levels in 2012; however momentum will slow in the second half of the year and into 2013.

- MLS sales will total 95,000 this year at an average price of $500,000.

- New home construction will reach 44,500 units in 2012 due to increased condominium apartment starts.

- Employment and net migration will slow in 2012, but are set to improve in 2013.



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Strong Sales and Price Growth in May

Toronto Real Estate Board - June 5, 2012 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,850 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in May 2012 – an 11 per cent increase over the 9,766 sales in May 2011. Sales growth was strongest in the ‘905’ regions surrounding the City of Toronto.

“Sales growth in the ‘905’ area code was stronger than growth in the City of Toronto across all major home types. While lower average prices are certainly one factor that has contributed to this trend, recent polling also suggests that the City of Toronto’s land transfer tax has also prompted many households to look outside of the City for their ownership housing needs,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Richard Silver.





New listings were up substantially on a year-over-year basis in May – rising by more than 20 per cent to 19,177.

The average price for May 2012 sales was $516,787, representing an annual increase of 6.5 per cent compared to $485,362 in May 2011. Price growth continued to be driven by the low-rise market segment.

“Strong competition between buyers seeking to purchase low-rise home types drove strong price growth in May. However, if new listings continue to grow at the pace they did in May for the remainder of 2012, the annual rate of price growth should begin to moderate on a sustained basis,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.






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Market Remains Tight with Sales Up in April

Toronto Real Estate Board - May 3, 2012 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,350 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in April 2012. This level of sales was 18 per cent higher than the 8,778 firm deals reported in April 2011. The strongest sales growth was reported in the single-detached market segment, with transactions of this home type up by 22 per cent compared to a year ago.

“Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. Growth in single-detached listings has not kept up with demand, which means competition between buyers in this market segment increased. With this in mind, it was no surprise that the strongest annual price increase was also experienced in the single-detached segment,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President, Richard Silver.

The average price for April 2012 transactions was $517,556 – up 8.5 per cent compared to April 2011. While price growth was strongest for single-detached homes, the better-supplied condominium apartment segment experienced a more moderate annual rate of price growth, at four per cent.

“Monthly mortgage payments remain affordable for home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area. While interest rates are generally expected to increase over the next two years, the extent and timing of rate hikes has been thrown into question by slower than expected economic growth in the first quarter of this year. On net, borrowing costs are expected to remain a positive factor influencing home sales through 2012,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.


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Tight Market Drives Double-Digit Price Growth

Toronto Real Estate Board's Market Watch - April 4, 2012 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,690 sales through the TorontoMLS system in March 2012. This result was up by almost eight per cent in comparison to the 8,986 deals reported during the same period in 2011.

“The GTA resale market has not suffered from a lack of willing buyers this year. Buyers have been spurred on by the positive affordability picture brought about by low mortgage rates,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver.

“The challenge has been a lack of inventory. Many listings have attracted multiple interested buyers. Strong competition has led to annual rates of price growth well above the long-term average.”

The average selling price in the GTA was $501,614 in March – up by 10 per cent in comparison to March 2011.

“The number of new listings was up last month in comparison to March 2011. However, based on the historic relationship between price and listings, the GTA resale market should be better supplied. If competition between buyers remains as strong as it is right now, we will almost certainly see an average selling price above $500,000 for 2012 as a whole,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

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Tight Market Pushes the Average Price above $500K

Toronto Real Estate Board - Market Watch Report for March 2012

March 5, 2012 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,032 sales in February 2012 – up 16 per cent compared to February 2011. New listings were also up over the same period, but by a lesser 11 per cent to 12,684. It is important to note that 2012 is a leap year, with one more day in February. Over the first 28 days of February, sales and new listings were up by ten per cent and six per cent respectively.

“With slightly more than two months of inventory in the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area, on average, it is not surprising that competition between buyers has exerted very strong upward pressure on the average selling price. Price growth will continue to be very strong until the market becomes better supplied,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver.

“It is important to note that both buyers and sellers are aware of current market conditions. This is evidenced by the fact that homes sold, on average, for 99 per cent of the asking price in February,” continued Silver.

The average selling price in the TREB market area was $502,508 in February – up 11 per cent compared to February 2011. The Composite MLS® Home Price Index for TREB, which provides a less volatile measure of price growth compared to the average price, was up by 7.3 per cent compared February 2011.

“If tight market conditions continue to result in higher than expected price growth as we move into the spring, expectations for 2012 as a whole will have to be revised upwards,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “While price growth remains strong, the average selling price remains affordable from a mortgage lending perspective for a household earning the average income in the GTA.”

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CMHC Housing Market Outlook for First Quarter 2012

CMHC reports "Despite uncertainty in the global economy, Ontario’s housing sector finished on a resilient note in 2011. Moving forward, Ontario housing starts should move closer to demographic demand. Housing activity will slow thanks to slowing growth in consumer discretionary spending, fewer first-time buyers and a modest pace of economic growth."

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Strong Sales/Price Growth Continue in 2012

February 3, 2012 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,567 sales through the TorontoMLS® system in January 2012. This number was 8.8 per cent higher than the 4,199 sales reported in January 2011. Sales growth was strongest for low-rise home types in the regions surrounding the City of Toronto.

“A favourable affordability picture bolstered by very low posted fixed mortgage rates has kept home buyers confident in their ability to achieve the Canadian goal of home ownership,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver.

“The buyer pool remains diverse in the GTA with strong interest in home types across the pricing spectrum,” continued Silver.

The average selling price for January 2012 transactions was $463,534 – up by almost nine per cent compared to January 2011.

“Low inventory levels have kept competition between buyers strong, resulting in robust annual rates of price growth over the last year. Strong price growth is expected to attract more listings. A better supplied market should result in a slower rate of price growth, especially in the second half of 2012,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.


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